Prepare for another round of my early morning economic/sociological thoughts, as I’m quite interested in this at the moment 😃

I’m actually on a cruise around Southern Europe at the moment and we have been gifted with some unseasonably warm weather at this time of year! 🛳

All the issues with staff shortages in UK are largely to do with the predicted demographic shift, IMO.

A bit Brexit, yes, but mostly record numbers retiring due to c-ovid and huge baby boomer generation finally retiring.

All the right wing conspiracy people believe there’s a population crisis and we have too many people. Conspiracies about culling the population, etc etc.

It’s actually the opposite: we don’t have enough people, especially working age people.

Developed countries have, and will continue to have, a hugely aging population and massive disparity between retired & working age people.

It has nothing to do with politics and left & right: it is demographics.

Immigration is central to maintaining a working age population in the UK. I’m massively pro immigration and almost a completely open borders for all person at this point.

For years, pre-Brexit, we had an under-the-table ‘deal’ with Europe that favoured the UK far more: we sent out pensioners to southern Europe (especially Spain) and received highly skilled Europeans in exchange.

It was a much better deal for the UK for obvious reasons.

That last paragraph is slightly tongue in cheek, but it’s statistically true (I’ve studied the numbers).

And if you trade only in anecdotal examples: how many old Spanish ladies do you see at the local small town UK supermarket?

Now go on holiday in Costa Blanca 😉

Also, interesting to see what happens if Fed/BoE, et al continue to hike rates into a job market with record openings.

It’ll be harder to trigger unemployment at the levels they need to in order to tame inflation and stop hiking interest rates.

Oh, here’s a lovely picture of one of my daughters in La Rochelle! 😃